Posted by admin

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/daveshap (Discord via Patreon) Substack: https://daveshap.substack.com/ (Free Mailing List) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dave-shap-automator/ GitHub: https://github.com/daveshap IMF AGI Preparation https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Scenario-Planning-for-an-AGI-future-Anton-korinek Anton Korinek Fellow, Brookings Institute Professor, UVA Former, Johns Hopkins, IMF Frontier of Automation - Task complexity of machines increases over time Unbounded Distribution - Human task complexity can go up indefinitely, meaning that some people will always be ahead of AGI and ASI Bounded Distribution - Humans have a maximum task complexity (Theory of General Relativity) Outlines 3 Scenarios 1. Business as Usual - All current trends continue without the frontier of automation continuing 2. 20 Year Baseline - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within about 20 years 3. 5 Year Aggressive - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within 5 years (more likely) Wages vs Output 1. Business as Usual - Wages and output continue to grow more or less correlated for the foreseeable future 2. 20 Year Baseline - Productivity (output) accelerates, but wages peak by about 10 years and then collapse to zero or near zero 3. 5 Year Aggressive - Same, but the parabolic curve is steeper (more likely IMHO) Persistent Jobs - Nostalgiac Jobs - Human preference for humans (such as politicians and religious positions) - Experience Jobs - Tour guides, *** workers, performing artists - Care Jobs - Child care, massage therapy, nurses